What’s the trend on earth in 2030?
This paper will examine about “worldwide stock market future of 2030”; what it would be in 2030. There are many sections ranging from political, economic, social to cultural side. However, due to its influence to rest of world components, I will focus on financial sector. Why especially stock market is I predict public finance (stock) will get a lot more money than private and conventional finances, thus loan and bond. Briefly, I will argue on stock market that American stock market domination will finish and China's rise as a largest power.
A century continuing American stock market domination will finish by Asian, particularly China's stock market rise. That is very crucial point as having happened between Great Britain and America a century ago and the hegemonic power shift occurred to America. Stock market power shifts are historically able to see as a century cycle from Dutch in 18th century, Britain in 19th century and then finally America as 20th century. The new century will be with China and 2030 can be a crucial moment that China becomes biggest stock market giant with USA.
Look at the Table 1. This shows the top 10 exchanges’ past 10 years stock aggregate volume change. Asia and emerging market certainly grew. Hong Kong Exchange had grown 3.5 times bigger than it was in 2001. Since Shanghai exchange restarted its operation in 1990, Shanghai Exchange isn’t comparable with that of 1991, but it also had developed as much as Hong Kong Exchange at its volume. Approximately 2400 billion USD of Shanghai Exchange is 6th biggest in the stock exchange industry as of 2011 end. Another significant exchange is BM&F Bovespa. It is Brazilian exchange. This exchange growth rate is also very high at around 560%. Overall, emerging market stock exchange growth rate (Hong Kong + BM&F Bovespa) is 5 times more than rest of the developed market stock exchange volume growth average.
Table1. Present Value Top 10 Stock Exchanges’ Comparison
source: Translate and Currect a chart in the monthly magazine "Monthly Capital Market"'s article by Fujita Tsutomu
Referring to Table2., the financial power shift happened dramatically during the time period. Here in 2007 end, Shanghai, Hong Kong & Mumbai, those emerging economy had appeared in the 10 stock market list. Additionally, however, it is important later on, top 5 had not been changed very much. In each time, US, Europe, and Japan are main players in the ranking. However the gap among top 10 countries had shrunken so let me also consider ex-japan, America, and Euro countries in the 2030 estimation later on.
Table 2. Worldwide Stock Exchange Financial Asset Ranking
source: World Federation of Exchanges Statistics METI data: http://www.meti.go.jp/report/tsuhaku2008/2008honbun/html/i2440000.html
Table 3. shows aggregate financial asset comparison among America, Europe, Japan, China, and Islam-world. First, let me explain why "Southeast Asia", "Africa", "India", and "Latin America" were excluded from this analysis. First, as for Southeast Asia, there is no "integrated stock markets". Southeast Asian countries have each own stock market. It prevents them from developing one big stock market.1 As for Africa, since this time estimation is 16 years range, I would like to focus on "developed" and current "emerging" economies since even the "emerging economies" at this moment, took a few decades to develop at what they are right now. Also, as a few famous researches conduct, such as Goldman Sacks 2050 survey, Indian economy will get its 1st rank position of GDP in 2050. This time the prediction rage is within 2030, therefore India would not be considered either and just China would be thought in the condition of financial regime change. As for Latin America, particularly, Brazil, is very significant in the volume of asset. However, due to global geographical disadvantage and also lack of industry...
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